Nearly 1 in 3 Teens May Have Prediabetes—But Is the Data Accurate?

A recent CDC analysis estimated that nearly 33% of adolescents aged 12 to 17 in the U.S. had prediabetes in 2023. That’s a staggering jump from prior estimates of about 20% and has understandably raised concern among parents and healthcare professionals. But before we panic, it’s important to understand what’s behind these numbers—and why some experts are questioning their accuracy.

What Is Prediabetes?

Prediabetes means a person's blood sugar levels are higher than normal, but not high enough to qualify as type 2 diabetes. It’s often silent, meaning there are no obvious symptoms. If left untreated, it increases the risk for developing type 2 diabetes, heart disease, and stroke.

Prediabetes is usually diagnosed using:

• Fasting plasma glucose (FPG) of 100–125 mg/dL
• Hemoglobin A1c of 5.7% to 6.4%

In this CDC analysis, both FPG and A1c were used—but only measured once, which can create variability in results.

What Changed in the Data?

The CDC used data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) and applied a new method for adjusting glucose measurements, known as the "forward regression" method. The change in methodology may explain the jump from 1 in 5 to nearly 1 in 3 teens being classified as prediabetic.

Notably, the CDC did not release the raw data or a peer-reviewed paper, prompting criticism from experts who want more transparency. Some researchers also warned that puberty can cause temporary blood sugar spikes, potentially inflating the prediabetes estimate.

Should Parents Be Concerned?

Even if the true prevalence is closer to 1 in 5 adolescents, that’s still a significant portion of teens at risk. Prediabetes often goes undetected because it rarely causes symptoms until it progresses. Early detection and lifestyle changes are key to preventing future complications.

Signs Your Child Might Be at Risk

• Overweight or obesity
• Family history of type 2 diabetes
• Low physical activity
• Acanthosis nigricans (dark, velvety patches on the skin)
• High cholesterol or blood pressure

What Parents Can Do

If your child may be at risk, talk to your pediatrician or primary care provider. The following steps can make a big impact:

• Get Screened: A simple blood test can check A1c or fasting glucose.
• Encourage Exercise: Aim for at least 60 minutes of movement daily.
• Promote Balanced Meals: Focus on fiber, lean proteins, fruits, and vegetables.
• Limit Sugary Drinks: Swap sodas and energy drinks for water or milk.

Final Takeaway

While the new CDC data should be taken with caution due to changes in methodology and a lack of published detail, the broader message remains the same: Too many adolescents are on the path to diabetes, and early intervention matters. If you have concerns about your child’s health, the pediatricians and family doctors at BASS Medical Group are here to help.

FAQs

Can prediabetes go away in teens?

‍Yes. With proper diet, physical activity, and sometimes medication, many teens can reverse prediabetes and return to normal blood sugar levels.

Is prediabetes the same as type 2 diabetes?

‍No. Prediabetes means blood sugar is elevated but not high enough to be diagnosed as diabetes. However, without intervention, it can progress to type 2 diabetes.

Should all teens get tested for prediabetes?

‍Not necessarily. Screening is typically recommended for teens who are overweight or have additional risk factors like family history, inactivity, or high cholesterol.